This document includes the perspective of Amundi on asset returns used to build reference portfolios for our institutional clients. A publication issued annually in February covers the major macro and financial foundations of our views, while this one provides a quarterly update of our medium and long-term expected returns by asset class.
Our medium-term baseline scenario is that of a late business cycle slowdown followed by a probable mild economic recession in the next three to five years. According to our calculations, the probability of drifting into a recession in the next three to five years is over 50%.
Europe may enter a mild recession before the US, based on the rationale that the ECB has less room for maneuver: countries have little fiscal space and political impasses continue, along with delays in fiscal plans, with perverse effects on growth. (for further details, please refer to Asset Class Return Forecasts (Q1 2019) available at Asset-Class-Views-Medium-and-long-term-expected-returns .