Shifts & Narratives #18 – The power of narratives for investors

A narrative is a popular story that arises from the public consciousness of market events. The most viral and intense of these may dominate public attention. Narratives are rooted in popular beliefs and are not necessarily from economists’ minds. Hence, by definition, a multitude of narratives may circulate in social interactions. They may evolve overtime … Continued

War and Net Zero offer opportunities across the commodity universe

Commodity trends are driven by four sets of factors: fundamental, geopolitical, structural and cyclical. Today, these are all supportive and underpin commodity price trends, especially for base metals and energy. Among the historical drivers, we have GDP growth and economic cycles. During the recovery phase, commodities – mainly cyclical ones – have performed well, driven … Continued

Macron’s re-election is positive for French assets

Emmanuel Macron won the presidential election with a strong lead (58.5%), a much better result than the latest polls predicted at the end of last week. However, the low turnout (72%), the lowest level since 1969, puts this victory into perspective. Above all, this victory is a great success for Europe and a guarantee of stability … Continued

The inflation psychology is kicking in

After a decade of central banks struggling to bring inflation up to target, the start of 2022 has been characterised by a shift in the inflationary environment worldwide. US inflation is at its highest level in over 40 years, with other DM trailing close behind. Eurozone annual inflation reached 7.5% in March, up from 5.9% … Continued

A more fragmented Emerging Markets world amid the Russia-Ukraine crisis

Although it is still difficult to anticipate how macro fundamentals will be impacted through this crisis, because of the uncertainty of its evolution and final outcome, our perspective is that the crisis is negatively affecting the growth outlook and raising inflationary pressures. The impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict is primarily on confidence and through commodity prices, given … Continued

Russia-Ukraine: a lot of bad news already priced in, but the outlook is deteriorating

We expect inflation to trend higher across emerging and developed markets and growth to be lower than initially expected, with higher risks for Europe and in particular countries more vulnerable to sanctions and energy price dynamics. Market Reactions: markets remain highly volatile, with equity markets down but with some recent signs of stabilisation. Oil remains under … Continued

Special Ukraine

The invasion of Ukraine by Russian troops has caught Europe off guard, reminding it of the darkest hours before the Second World War. The invasion of Ukraine by Russian troops has caught Europe off guard, reminding it of the darkest hours before the Second World War. NATO countries and European leaders have so far ruled … Continued

Russia attacks Ukraine: Markets will have to readjust to the shock

Market reaction: The worst-case scenario of a full blown attack to Ukraine has materialised. It’s risk-off on Russian assets; global risk assets are under severe pressure. Global markets were not pricing in a war scenario and are now adjusting given the magnitude of this military move. It will take time for the situation to settle … Continued

ESG Thema #8 – Financing the energy transition in Asia

Climate change commitments have stepped up recently but have yet to fully answer the call. National commitments should not constitute a limitation or constraint for a business entity to set ambitious net zero targets that are aligned with the Paris Agreement. As Asia is reliant on coal with a relatively young age of coal power fleets … Continued

Russia-Ukraine escalation adds to the case for additional protection

Understanding the economic and investment fallout of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The investment landscape has become riskier. The escalation in geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine, with Russian military forces entering the Donbas region, adds to the uncertainty regarding central bank actions to fight inflationary pressures. Volatility has risen in both bonds and equities which, overall, remain … Continued

Russia-Ukraine tensions: geopolitical risk adds volatility to risk assets

Understanding recent tensions between Russia and Ukraine, as well as the implications on the economy and potential geopolitical and investment consequences. Geopolitical dimension of the crisis: tensions stand at their highest point in years, after Moscow deployed 100,000 troops to its border with the Ukraine’s Donbas region. The geopolitical risk between Russia and the West … Continued

Robo-Advising for Small Investors: Evidence from Employee Savings Plans

We study the introduction of robo-advising on a large representative sample of Employees Saving Plans. The robo-advisor proposes a portfolio allocation and alerts investors if their allocation gets too far from the target, while investors remain free to follow or ignore the advices.We find that relative to self-managing, accessing the roboservice increases the amount of … Continued

Shifts & Narratives #4 – In search of a new international order

Profound changes in the international arena are underway. Together the EU, China and the United States are the three largest economies in the world. Whereas, previously, economic and geopolitical issues were treated separately, it is increasingly clear that the United States and China are using their economic power for geopolitical purposes. Such geopolitical leadership has … Continued

Amundi Pension Funds Letter n°11

Unexpected opportunities for pension funds In the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic, a lot of discussion has focused on the worsening of the retirement prospects of savers around the world. Indeed, exceptional policies, such as the possibility of raiding retirement pots in advance and the low interest rate environment supported by dovish monetary policies, could … Continued

Robo-Advising: Less AI and More XAI?

We start by considering some of the key reasons behind the academic and industry interest in robo-advisors. We discuss how robo-advice could potentially address some fundamental problems in investors’ decision making as well as in traditional financial advice. We then move on to some of the ongoing issues regarding the future of roboadvice. Firstly, the … Continued

Shifts & Narratives #2 – Inflation: something deep awakens

One year ago, as the Covid-19 crisis had just begun, wrote about its potential inflation implications from both a cyclical and a structural standpoint. Cyclically, the crisis was already generating a combination of demand and supply shocks that could only increase short-term inflation volatility and sectoral fragmentation. Structurally, we saw its potential to accelerate policy and … Continued

Temperature scores: an innovative tool for ESG fundamental investors

2021 will be a pivotal year to curb climate change. Although global CO2 emissions dropped 7% in 2020 due to the effects of Covid-19-related lockdowns, stronger action will be needed at the upcoming Conference of the Parties (COP) 26 to keep temperature increases below 2°C and towards 1.5°C.1 Achieving the 1.5°C goal will require net zero global emissions … Continued

Do not give up on fundamental valuations

SOMETHING HAS TO GIVE IN A REGIME SHIFT. BE PREPARED, THERE WILL BE OPPORTUNITIES FOR VALUE INVESTORS. THE GREAT DIVERGENCE It’s been one year now since the Covid-19 pandemic disrupted the world. It changed our lives, but financial markets seem to have side-lined this dramatic event as a temporary pullback, which was quickly recovered and … Continued

Brexit

Amundi has initiated a series of interviews on major themes usually addressed during the Amundi World Investment Forum with renowned speakers. Discover the theme ‘Brexit’ featuring: Jean-Jacques Barbéris Head of Institutional and Corporate clients Division Amundi Teresa May Prime Minister of the United Kingdom and Leader of the Conservative Party from 2016 to 2019

Responsible Investing and Stock Allocation

We analyze the portfolio choices of approximately 913,000 active participants in employee saving plans in France. Looking at the cross-section of equity exposure, we find that the inclusion of responsible equity options in the menu of available funds is associated with a 2.1% higher equity allocation by plan participants. Compared to an average equity asset … Continued

Monetary Policy New Frontiers?

Amundi has initiated a series of interviews on major themes usually addressed during the Amundi World Investment Forum with renowned speakers. Discover the second theme ‘Monetary Policy New Frontiers?’ featuring: Pascal BlanquéGroup CIO, Amundi Stephanie KeltonProfessor of Economics and Public Policy, Stony Brook University

Europe in the Global Order

Amundi has initiated a series of interviews on major themes usually addressed during the Amundi World Investment Forum with renowned speakers. Discover the first theme ‘Europe in the Gobal Order’ featuring: Enrico LettaFormer Prime Minister of Italy(2013-2014) Thomas PhilipponMax L. Heine Professor of Finance at New York University Stern School of Business,Administrator Think Tank EuropaNova … Continued

The Day After #10 – Rethinking the macro and cross-asset research: what we have learned from the Covid-19 crisis

Covid-19 accelerated markets’ entropy and risk takers will evolve their investment approaches Crises create disruption and Covid-19 is no exception, bringing new complexities, new opportunities and new risks to the investment landscape. From our research angle, we realised that the pandemic triggered: A fast-evolving macro financial environment. A common global ‘health’ shock affecting economies and … Continued

The Day After #8 – Deglobalisation could improve diversification but also exacerbate financial contagion

In recent years world trade dynamics have definitely shown an accentuated inversion of the globalisation trend and its robust contribution to global economic performance. The Great Financial Crisis (GFC) marked a historic turning point in the degree of global economic integration. Since 2007/08 global trade has entered a period of increasingly protectionist policies (trade barriers, … Continued

Biden’s election momentum and financial markets

Joe Biden has a historically large lead over President Donald Trump in the polls, including in the critical electoral college vote, but that could narrow closer to the election. The slide in Trump’s approval rating was most noticeable among senior citizens and he has not led in a single major poll so far this year, … Continued

The Day After #6 – Inflation: persistent headwinds but a possible inflationary cocktail

Since the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic, all eyes have been on the unfolding health catastrophe and the consequences of confinement: economies halted, exploding rates of unemployment (in particular in the United States), and rising debt levels. In this extraordinary context, inflation is often overlooked. This is a dangerous mistake, in our view. For investors, … Continued

The Day After #5 – New frontiers for Central Banks

Central Banks (CBs) are by nature more flexible than governments. Thus, they have been the most proactive in this crisis, reintroducing large-scale asset-purchase programmes financed by money creation (QE policies). With this pandemic, a spectacular change in economic policy has taken place in just a few months: fiscal and monetary policies have become intertwined, and … Continued

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