Early this month, the UK Parliament passed a motion instructing the Prime Minister (PM) Boris Johnson to request an extension of the Brexit deadline by 19 October, and rejected the PM’s request for elections before 31 October (the current Brexit deadline). This week, the UK Supreme Court judged “unlawful” the advice to suspend the legislature given by Boris Johnson to the Queen. These events strengthen our view that another extension of the Brexit deadline is the most likely scenario. In this case, we would also expect a snap election to be called. Current polls say that the Tories may secure an outright majority, meaning that the no-deal risk would remain significant after the extension (although our central scenario is that the extension is followed by a deal).