This year will be crucial for the future of United Kingdom’s relationship with the European Union following Brexit. The next round of negotiation talks will take place between February and March, and will focus on defining a two-year transition agreement. After that, the next important deadline is likely to be October by when the withdrawal agreement, that should mention the main guidelines regarding the future trade relationship, must be defined in order for the UK to formally exit the European Union on 29 March 2019.

We have defined four possible scenarios explaining how we think the trade agreement could unfold. Based on the two most likely ones, we have considered the potential impact on the UK’s macroeconomy, currency, rates and equity.