While the threat of a large-scale Sino-US tariff war appears to be receding, the US could now switch its focus to its trade deficits with the European Union.
With this in mind, we wanted to find out which European equities, in terms of country, sector or individual companies, would be hardest hit by a trade conflict.
A review of the indice showed that 20% of aggregate sales of MSCI Europe companies were to the US, vs. 14% for the MSCI US in the other direction. In the event of a conflict, the US would therefore be less exposed, but both sides would definitely lose out.
And while the European Automobiles & Components are generally singled out, other sectors such as Capital Goods, Food, Beverages & Tobacco or Healthcare which are even more exposed to the US could therefore prove at risk.