Abstract

A few days before the important meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping, it is important to have a clear view on the trade dispute between the two countries and on the potential impacts of a trade war.

In any case, 2018 will remain a landmark year, one that goes hand in hand with an increase in trade tariff measures and that marks the intensification of the trade dispute between the United States and countries such as China, Mexico and Canada in particular. As mentioned, it could also be the year that marks the beginning of a real trade war. We are not there yet, if we consider the current situation as being rather a war “United States against the rest of the world”, but also if one relies on the level of the increases of the tariffs, far removed from those prevailing in previous trade wars. Nevertheless, given the increased importance over the decades of the indirect effects of tariff increases (impacts on risk aversion, perception of the risk of a global trade recession but also of global growth, wealth effects linked the potential impact on the financial markets, lower confidence indices and therefore consumption and investment …), there is already something to worry about, and all the more so that dominates the impression that D. Trump is not going to stop there.