Shifts & Narratives #18 – The power of narratives for investors

A narrative is a popular story that arises from the public consciousness of market events. The most viral and intense of these may dominate public attention. Narratives are rooted in popular beliefs and are not necessarily from economists’ minds. Hence, by definition, a multitude of narratives may circulate in social interactions. They may evolve overtime … Continued

The inflation psychology is kicking in

After a decade of central banks struggling to bring inflation up to target, the start of 2022 has been characterised by a shift in the inflationary environment worldwide. US inflation is at its highest level in over 40 years, with other DM trailing close behind. Eurozone annual inflation reached 7.5% in March, up from 5.9% … Continued

Russia-Ukraine: a lot of bad news already priced in, but the outlook is deteriorating

We expect inflation to trend higher across emerging and developed markets and growth to be lower than initially expected, with higher risks for Europe and in particular countries more vulnerable to sanctions and energy price dynamics. Market Reactions: markets remain highly volatile, with equity markets down but with some recent signs of stabilisation. Oil remains under … Continued

Russia-Ukraine tensions: geopolitical risk adds volatility to risk assets

Understanding recent tensions between Russia and Ukraine, as well as the implications on the economy and potential geopolitical and investment consequences. Geopolitical dimension of the crisis: tensions stand at their highest point in years, after Moscow deployed 100,000 troops to its border with the Ukraine’s Donbas region. The geopolitical risk between Russia and the West … Continued

Shifts & Narratives #2 – Inflation: something deep awakens

One year ago, as the Covid-19 crisis had just begun, wrote about its potential inflation implications from both a cyclical and a structural standpoint. Cyclically, the crisis was already generating a combination of demand and supply shocks that could only increase short-term inflation volatility and sectoral fragmentation. Structurally, we saw its potential to accelerate policy and … Continued

The Day After #8 – Deglobalisation could improve diversification but also exacerbate financial contagion

In recent years world trade dynamics have definitely shown an accentuated inversion of the globalisation trend and its robust contribution to global economic performance. The Great Financial Crisis (GFC) marked a historic turning point in the degree of global economic integration. Since 2007/08 global trade has entered a period of increasingly protectionist policies (trade barriers, … Continued

The Day After #6 – Inflation: persistent headwinds but a possible inflationary cocktail

Since the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic, all eyes have been on the unfolding health catastrophe and the consequences of confinement: economies halted, exploding rates of unemployment (in particular in the United States), and rising debt levels. In this extraordinary context, inflation is often overlooked. This is a dangerous mistake, in our view. For investors, … Continued

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