A more fragmented Emerging Markets world amid the Russia-Ukraine crisis

Although it is still difficult to anticipate how macro fundamentals will be impacted through this crisis, because of the uncertainty of its evolution and final outcome, our perspective is that the crisis is negatively affecting the growth outlook and raising inflationary pressures. The impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict is primarily on confidence and through commodity prices, given … Continued

Russia-Ukraine: a lot of bad news already priced in, but the outlook is deteriorating

We expect inflation to trend higher across emerging and developed markets and growth to be lower than initially expected, with higher risks for Europe and in particular countries more vulnerable to sanctions and energy price dynamics. Market Reactions: markets remain highly volatile, with equity markets down but with some recent signs of stabilisation. Oil remains under … Continued

Special Ukraine

The invasion of Ukraine by Russian troops has caught Europe off guard, reminding it of the darkest hours before the Second World War. The invasion of Ukraine by Russian troops has caught Europe off guard, reminding it of the darkest hours before the Second World War. NATO countries and European leaders have so far ruled … Continued

Russia attacks Ukraine: Markets will have to readjust to the shock

Market reaction: The worst-case scenario of a full blown attack to Ukraine has materialised. It’s risk-off on Russian assets; global risk assets are under severe pressure. Global markets were not pricing in a war scenario and are now adjusting given the magnitude of this military move. It will take time for the situation to settle … Continued

Russia-Ukraine escalation adds to the case for additional protection

Understanding the economic and investment fallout of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The investment landscape has become riskier. The escalation in geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine, with Russian military forces entering the Donbas region, adds to the uncertainty regarding central bank actions to fight inflationary pressures. Volatility has risen in both bonds and equities which, overall, remain … Continued

Russia-Ukraine tensions: geopolitical risk adds volatility to risk assets

Understanding recent tensions between Russia and Ukraine, as well as the implications on the economy and potential geopolitical and investment consequences. Geopolitical dimension of the crisis: tensions stand at their highest point in years, after Moscow deployed 100,000 troops to its border with the Ukraine’s Donbas region. The geopolitical risk between Russia and the West … Continued

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