• Early UK elections will take place on 8th June.
  • These elections were meant to increase the Tory majority in Parliament as well as the legitimacy of PM Theresa May so that she could negotiate Brexit procedures more effectively.
  • But May’s gamble seems more difficult to win now. While the polls (which were not reliable in the last major UK votes) show the Conservatives still in the lead, that lead has significantly narrowed over the past few weeks.
  • The winner will also have to manage the UK economy’s deceleration, perceptible since the year began.
  • If she gains a well extended majority, May will be able to implement her Brexit strategy: a hard line in the beginning, probably followed by necessary concessions. Exiting without an agreement is scarcely an option.
  • Another (and very plausible) scenario is a re-elected but reduced (or barely extended) Conservative majority, increasing the risk of more conflictual Brexit negotiations.
  • Conversely, a minority or coalition government (with or without the Conservatives) would probably move the UK position toward a “softer” Brexit (though with varying possibilities, and some caveats).