Shifts & Narratives #18 – The power of narratives for investors

A narrative is a popular story that arises from the public consciousness of market events. The most viral and intense of these may dominate public attention. Narratives are rooted in popular beliefs and are not necessarily from economists’ minds. Hence, by definition, a multitude of narratives may circulate in social interactions. They may evolve overtime … Continued

War and Net Zero offer opportunities across the commodity universe

Commodity trends are driven by four sets of factors: fundamental, geopolitical, structural and cyclical. Today, these are all supportive and underpin commodity price trends, especially for base metals and energy. Among the historical drivers, we have GDP growth and economic cycles. During the recovery phase, commodities – mainly cyclical ones – have performed well, driven … Continued

Macron’s re-election is positive for French assets

Emmanuel Macron won the presidential election with a strong lead (58.5%), a much better result than the latest polls predicted at the end of last week. However, the low turnout (72%), the lowest level since 1969, puts this victory into perspective. Above all, this victory is a great success for Europe and a guarantee of stability … Continued

The inflation psychology is kicking in

After a decade of central banks struggling to bring inflation up to target, the start of 2022 has been characterised by a shift in the inflationary environment worldwide. US inflation is at its highest level in over 40 years, with other DM trailing close behind. Eurozone annual inflation reached 7.5% in March, up from 5.9% … Continued

A more fragmented Emerging Markets world amid the Russia-Ukraine crisis

Although it is still difficult to anticipate how macro fundamentals will be impacted through this crisis, because of the uncertainty of its evolution and final outcome, our perspective is that the crisis is negatively affecting the growth outlook and raising inflationary pressures. The impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict is primarily on confidence and through commodity prices, given … Continued

Russia-Ukraine: a lot of bad news already priced in, but the outlook is deteriorating

We expect inflation to trend higher across emerging and developed markets and growth to be lower than initially expected, with higher risks for Europe and in particular countries more vulnerable to sanctions and energy price dynamics. Market Reactions: markets remain highly volatile, with equity markets down but with some recent signs of stabilisation. Oil remains under … Continued

Special Ukraine

The invasion of Ukraine by Russian troops has caught Europe off guard, reminding it of the darkest hours before the Second World War. The invasion of Ukraine by Russian troops has caught Europe off guard, reminding it of the darkest hours before the Second World War. NATO countries and European leaders have so far ruled … Continued

ESG Thema #8 – Financing the energy transition in Asia

Climate change commitments have stepped up recently but have yet to fully answer the call. National commitments should not constitute a limitation or constraint for a business entity to set ambitious net zero targets that are aligned with the Paris Agreement. As Asia is reliant on coal with a relatively young age of coal power fleets … Continued

Russia-Ukraine tensions: geopolitical risk adds volatility to risk assets

Understanding recent tensions between Russia and Ukraine, as well as the implications on the economy and potential geopolitical and investment consequences. Geopolitical dimension of the crisis: tensions stand at their highest point in years, after Moscow deployed 100,000 troops to its border with the Ukraine’s Donbas region. The geopolitical risk between Russia and the West … Continued

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